the science of trends

07/07/2005 08:55:00 PM
French scientists Michard and Bouchard spent some time examining the numbers behind phenomena like birth rates, cell phone growth and clapping. Their paper looks at the data in detail to find herding effects. To do this they looked at mathematical theories for magnetic behavior and applied them to social phenomena.

Their model shows that the speed of a trend depends on the levels of influence that people have over one another. Clearly, different cultures and demographic groups exert different levels of influence.

It also shows that shifts in behavior occur faster when people have a strong tendency to imitate each other, again this various by culture and demographic group.

There is also a multiplier effect at work here as these shifts can occur so fast that they appear to happen overnight. As more and more members of the population adopt the new behavior, the behavioral shift accelerates.

To quote the authors "strong social imitation can be the key to success of a brand."

While we like to think of ourselves as individuals with a unique set of opinions, most of the time we simply respond to the herd. For marketers it's as simple as what does it take to get the "herd effect" going.

Following the work of Michard and Bouchard, for marketing success you need to:

1. Understand the influence your target has over one another, or find a group like Gladwell's Mavens, that strongly influences others

2. Know where imitation matters most- youth demographic or different locations, moods and situations

3. Be prepared to do something dramatic to encourage rapid fire early adoption- so the accelerator effect works in your favor
Tags:

Comments
It appears you don't have Flash installed.
Email this article to a friend
Send an email to a friend with a link to this article. Items with an asterisk (*) are required.

Your Name:
*

Your Email:
*

Friend's Name:
*

Friend's Email:
*