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I am not going to try and match JWT’s list of 80 things, but here are 8 things that I believe will be preoccupying our minds in 08.

1.Slowdown?

The terrible “R” word is everywhere, with Wall Street looking nervously at every seemingly contradictory figure. It’s clear there are massive issues with housing and personal debt doesn’t look so great. The impact on communication spend is obvious and it looks like its time for people to dust off all those famous papers and books about the importance of brands spending during a downturn.

2.Attention Spikes

It’s now clear that agencies are competing on something of a level playing field in the war for attention. They don’t have the luxury of just hoping to be best ad in the pod or best in the break; it’s now about the most viral idea of the moment on any medium. It's now clear that television isn't the only way to do this. This year, Fallon’s Gorilla for Cadbury and Crispin’s Whopper Freakout showed us how.

Interestingly, although the campaigns had similar goals to spike attention, they approached it in very different ways. Fallon went all out for entertainment based on the strategic premise of joy and Crispin integrated the product into the heart of the idea.

Look for more of this type of thinking in 08; more media neutral ideas, more shock, and more entertainment from brands looking for attention.

3.Brands and The Social Network

The role of brands is the big question hanging over Facebook and all its competitors. It’s clear that advertising can and will continue to exist on these platforms in the form of links and banners, but the networks are promising brands an opportunity to be a part of the conversation. Certainly, there will be opportunities for the right brand, if the product is interesting and relevant enough.

There are two viable routes currently open:

a.To build or buy an application that adds tremendous value to the community and is discretely branded
b.To create a brand page that offers content to fans that is unavailable anywhere else on the Internet.

Brands will be trying feverishly to crack the code on both these areas in 08.

4.Collaboration

Collaboration will be the word of 08, with more layers of complexity being added to communication plans everyday, collaboration has become an essential component of success. It’s no longer possible for a duo of authors to crack the code on everything. Success will come to those who turn collaboration into an art, seamlessly blending media, creative thinking, digital outside partners and clients into the mix. This is all about culture and the willingness to learn and experiment.

Black Swan thinking is required.

5.The Digital Holy Grail

With content being unleashed and re-distributed across the internet, banners seemingly becoming less effective and all the questions about pre-roll, it’s unclear exactly what options brands have on the web. The build your own big website and expect people to visit theory isn’t necessarily a winner, unless you can do something interesting with it. It’s clear that those brands that are “Attention Spiking” should have a digital component to their efforts and then there’s the whole idea of Brand Utility.

How can a brand build something that helps people out in a way that they aren’t being helped already? 

This is the Holy Grail and something that requires an incredible force of thinking.

6.Environmentalism is Dead

It’s clear the issue of the environment is now mainstream, but the big question is what happens next? It’s likely that the biggest problem is going to come from separating the fact from the fiction. The more consumers and industry learn, the more complex the questions become and it’s not always clear what solutions are best or better.

The uncertainty will have a damaging impact on the issue with consumers and brands feeling paralyzed over choices.

The next phase of the environmental movement will revolve around the establishment of standards and practices that gain widespread acceptance.

We’ve already seen some of the impact things like LEED standards for buildings can have and we are starting to see carbon audits developing to a point where they can become standardized. 2008 will be a tricky year for those looking to push green credentials for all the reasons listed above.

The smartest brands will be looking to do two things this coming year:

a.    Take real action-do things that are measurable and have an impact
b.    Look at the issue as one of social responsibility and not just the environment

7.What the Hell Are We Measuring- ROI?

Media measurement has always been a questionable issue ever since the day it was invented. Methodologies and samples have been picked over and analyzed. This is not going away, but as more layers of media get added to the mix, you start to multiply the complexity. This issue is far from being solved and the conversation keeps changing, often to the benefit of the media owner. Surely, brands spending billions of dollars a year on communication should understand what’s working on a cross media basis? Again, this is an area where new standards and new tools are urgently needed and we are likely to see the emergence of some in 2008.

Interestingly, many of these will be proprietary, as global agencies and clients use their muscle to build their own, instead of waiting for industry bodies and research houses to get up to speed.

8. A Year for Mobile

The success of the iPhone in 07 showed everyone a new vision for the mobile device. Elegant, simple and designed with the user in mind, it gave everyone the chance to see a future where television, video, The Internet and location specific information could be used on a mobile device. 2008 will see Apple build upon this with a 3G version of the phone that offers high-speed access and GPS functionality. The race is now on to develop mobile applications for brands that benefit the user. The issue isn’t too different from the Social Network, privacy and personal space are of critical importance in the mobile environment and brands will abuse that at their peril.

Clearly, there’s massive appeal for location-specific applications that link brands to users and perhaps their social network as well. It’s likely we will see some interesting first moves in this space in 2008 from the fast food chains and the big retail brands. The iTunes, iPhone and Starbucks initiatve in 2007, is a taste of things to come.

Posted by Ed Cotton Although it's hard to gauge the real sales numbers for the iPhone, people are talking about 1.2-1.4 million, I thought it would be interestng to look at the "noise" the launch generated and compare it to other cultural events.

The tool I have used is Google Trends which looks at data for search volumes. This isn't the same as column inches or minutes of news time, but it's still an interesting barometer.

It's clear that the iPhone may have generated more "noise" than any other brand in recent years. It's peak is comprable with that of the Superbowl (the most watched event in the US) and nearly double that of the Oscars.

It's pretty remarkable that a single product can create that level of interest and hardly surprising that Time Magazine continued to fuel the noise by naming it Invention of the Year.

Obviously, all this noise is only good if it can be translated into sales.

As an interesting sidenote, I also plotted the trajectory of Facebook, which appears to be slowly creeping up to the iPhone frenzy noise level, no wonder Google is scared.





Posted by Ed Cotton Nokia dominates the global handset market- in Q2 2007 the company sold 100 million phones and holds over 35% of the global market.

However, it’s been something of a sleeping giant, it hasn’t had the coolest products or image that Apple possesses, but could that be about to change?

In the last week or so, Nokia has gone on the offensive and launched:

1.Ovi- a new web portal for mobile social networking




2. An iPhone clone set for launch early in 2008.



With the combination of aggressive copycat tactics- (clone phones and retail stores) and a new cooler image, Nokia could easily extend its category dominance.

All it needs is better advertising.



Posted by Ed Cotton influx insights for your iphone (37.968154770211655 , -122.49446868896484) Obviously, Influx has been tracking Apple's sales trends like everyone else, but with an estimated 700,000 iPhones sold in the first weekend, we felt we had to respond.

We know there's a big correlation between Influx Insights readership and iPhone ownership.



We've responded by making Influx Insights, iPhone ready. So those of you who splashed out on one of the decade's fanciest gadgets will be able to enjoy all the Influx goodness on your brand new toy.



No need for special urls, just type http://www.influxinsights.com into your iPhone and it will format automatically.

Don't ask me how it's done, but a huge thank you to our tech wizards, Joseph Piro and Josh Brewer for making it happen.

Posted by Ed Cotton Nokia and Microsoft now have armies of anthroplogists scouring the globe for insight into how people communicate and use technology.

She feeds results of her field studies to two dozen designers, engineers and strategists toiling in an unusual research lab on the Microsoft campus. Awkwardly dubbed the Mobile and Embedded Devices Experience design center, or MEDX, it is where Microsoft plots strategies to sell souped-up cellphones that act a lot like PCs."

USA Today

Despite all the collective wisdom and intelligence of these armies,they haven't inspired their designers to create anything as captivating as Apple's iPhone.

Is it because they are looking at what is, rather than imagining what could be?


Posted by Ed Cotton The millions of dollars of free airtime and cult like fans contributed to a perfect opportunity for causes and individuals to hijack Apple's primetime.

Some examples:

Hats off to Johnny and the crew at Anomaly- they lined up in NYC for phones to auction for charity

Robert Scoble proved himself to be the geek’s CNN

Technology analysts left their cubes for the first time in months to try and get attention by capturing and sharing the news

Steve Wozniak reminded people there was once another Steve at Apple

The Today show considered the story important enough for an advertorial, wanted to be noticed for it, but sadly they couldn’t get that right.
 

Posted by Ed Cotton