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According to some polls, the crisis on Wall Street is having a significant impact on overall consumer confidence with obvious implications for spending in Q4.

Obviously, it's more than just Wall Street, but, it clearly isn't helping an already nervous nation.

IPSOS- September 19th..

- 60% of Americans doubt the government's ability to restore confidence post-crisis

- 90% believe events will have a negative impact on the economy

- 76% believe the home mortgage crisis will continue to worsen

- 45% believe the economy will be worse off six months from now

Zogby Poll- September 17th

- 44% of Americans will spend less or a lot less on gifts this year than in 2007

USA Today/Gallup Poll- September 15th

- 23% of Americans believe the country is in a depression

CBS/New York Times Poll-September 12th-16th

- 39% rate the condition of the economy as very bad

- 39% rate the condition of the economy as fairly bad

- 61% believe the economy is getting worse

Things can shift with changes in gas prices and with market moves as we've just seen this morning, but the overall mood is very negative and probably will not pick up until there are signs of life in the housing market.

According to the experts, the IMF (First Deputy Director John Lipsky), speaking in Washington on Thursday believes this could happen towards the end of 2009.

"First, as noted earlier, oil prices have come down sharply in recent weeks. This should reverse a significant portion of the adverse terms-of-trade effects arising from the more than 60 percent increase in oil prices during 2008 and the erosion in purchasing power and real wages being felt by most advanced economies. In the United States, if oil prices remain at current levels, the implied boost to real disposable income will rival the value of the income tax rebates. Indeed, in our projections, we expect a modest rebound in consumption in both the United States and euro area over the course of 2009.Second, it is plausible to anticipate that the U.S. housing market will find a bottom in 2009. Already, the inventory overhang is diminishing, while affordability measures are returning to levels that appear much more consistent with past experience."

Looks like it's going to remain very tough for at least another year.




Posted by Ed Cotton With the crisis continuing and two venerable brands looking at new futures, Fortune Magazine suggests the end has just happened.

"The end of Wall Street.
As Lehman's demise and Merrill's acquisition make clear, a business model built on ramping up risk and leverage simply doesn't work."

What's the new business model?
What does this mean for corporations, individuals and financing?



Posted by Ed Cotton Reuters recently wrote an interesting story about the rise of quantitative analysis on Wall Street, analysis based on lots and lost of data, that’s gaining preference over the more conventional and qualitative analysis.

“Now complex computerized programs can do all that and more, including employing vast reservoirs of data on historic prices to project how stock, currency or other prices may move. Overlay that security-specific information with macro-economic data, forecasts, demographics, industry statistics and other information, and you get a more efficient trading model, proponents say.”

Shift focus to the marketing world and the movement towards the quantitative is already happening.

As marketing dollars shift towards directly responsive media, the data starts becoming more freely available and complex sets of analysis can be made. Up until recently, we’ve seen a bifurcation of disciples; the direct sell side guys and the brand builders. The two worlds were separated and unique.

However, the rise of web video is changing all that. We now have web- based media chasing after dollars that have previously been bound for television.  This isn’t about pre or post roll, but the brand impact of rich video content designed for interactive consumption.

The coming together of the brand building and direct selling worlds creates new demands on planners. No longer can they be content with being the qualitative insights gurus, if they want to survive, they are going to have get to grips with the emerging quantitative world.

Interestingly, this world isn’t complete, it’s half built at best. No one knows quite what it should look like or how we should measure it. There are some buzz measurement tools, there are cross media optimization tools and other things, but nothing optimal.

It’s a good time to get started.

The Reuters article suggests that equity analysts will still have a job, but it's now recognized there are alternative sources of great insight.

It’s possible that the same development could happen in planning